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美国人死亡概率随时间变化

探索按年龄和性别划分的死亡概率变化,揭示男性和女性预期寿命的差异。

作者:Razib Khan
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今天是黑色星期五。那么为什么不来一篇“病态”的帖子呢?我偶然发现了 2007 年的一些“生命表”。实际上,这个链接提供的是给定年龄下男性和女性的死亡概率和预期寿命。这显然对于私人和公共保险目的很重要。这些表格自然地按性别划分,因为男性和女性的死亡可能性不同。众所周知,除了当今最原始的少数国家外,女性的预期寿命普遍高于男性。我想做一些可视化。我将年龄范围限制在 0 到 100 岁之间。由于我觉得预期寿命是一个无趣的统计数据(众所周知),我想把重点放在给定年份的死亡概率上。我生成了四张表格。- 首先,一张表格显示了给定年份的死亡概率经过对数转换后的结果。我必须进行转换,因为 1 岁和 100 岁之间的差异跨越了四个数量级。- 其次,一张表格说明了死亡概率逐年变化的绝对值。这基本上衡量的是 X 年和 X-1 年之间的绝对变化。具体来说,一个例子可能是(10 岁时的死亡概率)-(9 岁时的死亡概率)。- 第三,一张表格取自上面表格的结果,并按前一年的值进行标准化,因此它显示了逐年变化的比例。即 [(10 岁时的死亡概率) - (9 岁时的死亡概率)] / (9 岁时的死亡概率)。- 最后,一张表格显示了男性与女性死亡概率多年来的比率。这个比率通常 > 1,很明显。让我完全惊讶的是,它在 ~10 岁左右会 < 1。为男性团队欢呼!请记住,下面的所有图表都以年龄为 X 轴。原始数据附在图表下方。祝大家周末愉快!

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年龄男性死亡概率男性预期寿命女性死亡概率女性预期寿命男性死亡概率变化女性死亡概率变化男性死亡概率比例变化女性死亡概率比例变化男性/女性

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